TEST LINK


2009, Mathematics - Grade 6
Question 1: Multiple-Choice
Reporting Category: Data Analysis, Statistics, and Probability
Standard: 6.D.2 - Construct and interpret stem-and-leaf plots, line plots, and circle graphs.

In 2009, Tom Brady came back from a serious injury to pass for 4,398 yards. 

The stem and leaf plot below shows Brady's passing yards for all 16 games in that season.

In how many games did Tom Brady throw for under 260 yards?

A. 9
B. 7
C. 10
D. 4

Analysis of QB Records by Opponent Score - Part 1 (21 Point Threshold)

I've always been one to question the logic of using win/loss record as a major barometer of a quarterback's success. I never understood how fans could fault Dan Marino or Jim Kelly for not having a Super Bowl ring? Was it Marino's fault that he never got any support from the running game? Did Jim Kelly shank a makeable field goal on the last play of a Super Bowl? Of course not.

On the flip-side, were Tom Brady and Big Ben premier quarterbacks the year they won their first respective Super Bowls? I think most people would agree that, despite their current prominence, they had some help in the early victories.

With that in mind, I decided to see if I could find some statistics that started to tease out the question of how much a quarterback can ultimately control the outcome of a game.

Today's blog is the first.

During the recent Jay Cutler situation, I heard a number of critics reference his 14-20 record as a starter. However, Cutler's defenders quickly pointed out that he is 10-1 when his team gives up less than 21 points. I thought this was a very interesting way to look at the situation. Sports radio talking heads will ignore the fact that Cutler was supported by a lousy defense and focus on the record - simply because the record helps them reach their desired conclusion. (Never let the facts get in the way of a good story).

So, here's what I did. I looked at a handful of current quarterbacks and compared their records several different ways.

1. Overall record
2. Record when the defense gives up over 21 points
3. Record when the defense gives up under 21 points

So, let's get to the numbers:

Record When Opponent Scores Less vs. More Than 21 Points
Table 1 below shows the difference in winning percentage for a group of quarterbacks overall and when their defense gives up fewer than 21 points.




























Look at Carson Palmer and Drew Brees. Those two are clearly very good quarterbacks. But, for reasons they can't control, their records don't reflect their abilities. Palmer and Brees have 89% and 86% winning percentages, respectively, when their defense holds the opponent to under 21 points.

But, as Table 2 below shows, Brees' defense only comes through about 43% of the time (probably much less if you only look at his years with the Saints) and Palmer's team gives up less than 21 points 44% of the time. Compare this with Brady and Roethlisberger, who's opponents score less than 21 points in 2 out of every 3 games.

None of this is to imply that Brees or Palmer are as good as Brady. But, as Malcolm Gladwell's OUTLIERS points out, greatness does not happen in a vacuum. Tom Brady is one of the best QBs ever to play the game. But he would be the legend he is today if he didn't get help from the people around him.

A few other things jump out:

1. Overall, Matt Schaub has a losing record as a starting quarterback. But, he is also the QB on this list who has had the the least help from his defense. Schaub is actually undefeated in the 6 games where his defense holds the opponent to under 21 points.
2. Donovan McNabb and Jake Delhomme have been put in very good situations by stingy defenses. However, when faced with an opponent scoring over 21 points, Delhomme comes through at a much higher clip (44 win % - among the highest) than McNabb (38%).
3. Jason Campbell is very lucky his defense is an ally. Campbell has a win pct of 14% when his defense gives up over 21 points. Thank goodness this situation has happened in less than 40% of games Campbell has played.
4. Peyton Manning maintains a very high overall winning percentage (66%) despite his defense's mediocre efforts (<21>
5. Cutler and Palmer win 17% and 20%, respectively, of the games where their defense gives up over 21 points. These are actually two of the lower numbers for this metric.
   

Of course, to get a true measure of what this really means, we would have to see how far above 21 points the opponents are scoring. Cutler is winning less than one in five games where his defense gives up over 21 points. But, if the average number of points the opponent scores in those games is 35 points, then it may not make sense to compare this number to Brady or Roethlesberger. Stay tuned (how's that for a segway?)

My New Dataset

I'm a data geek. I'm also a sports geek. So, it was inevitable that I would eventually marry my two geek-domes.

I recently embarked on a (ongoing) journey to get granular NFL data so that I could find my own unique stats - maybe even run some analytics against the data to see if I can find some secret to NFL success - think gridiron Moneyball.....yeah, I'm sure I'm the only one in search of this treasure.

I actually found that granular (at least game level) data was very hard to find for free - and I have a wife who probably wouldn't take kindly to my spending the college funds on this endeavor. Over a year ago, I was able to find game level data in a csv format (I believe I got that from profootballtalk.com - but I'm not 100% sure). That data went through 2006. I supplemented that data. in a very manual fashion, with data through 2008 (starting in 1995).

With all of this data, I decided to start analyzing quarterback statistics and see if I could find any trends. I layered in game scores, colleges attended, and any other information I could get my hands on.

My goal was/is to use free time to answer any questions that come to mind. Which colleges have the qbs with the best win/loss records? Which conferences? Which qb's would most improve their records if they had a better defense?
I would eventually like to start running some higher level analytics and seeing if I could find some neat trends. For now, I'll stick with some, more or less, basic data.

Colleges producing NFL Quarterbacks (From 2007)

When you think of the storied programs of college football, you think of Michigan, Notre Dame, USC etc... So, logic would tell you that they would produce the most NFL talent and, therefore, the most NFL quarterbacks. But, every year I watch the draft and hear the names of qb's called from some less traditional schools (Oregon, Cal, Fresno State), so I decided to put the so called logic to the test.

I went and looked at which college current nfl qb's attended. I included any qb on the depth charts of footballguys.com as of 8/28/2007 - some have since been released.

What did we find:

No one school jumped out immediately. 10 schools had 3 quarterbacks in the NFL. Those were Washington, USC, Tulane, Oregon, Michigan, Miami, Marshall, Fresno State, Florida, and Boston Colllege. That's a pretty eclectic list. That's 3 PAC 10 schools, 2 Conference USA schools, and 2 ACC schools. The other 3 are from the Big 10, WAC, and SEC.

14 schools had 2 qb's. Those were Wisconsin, Cal, Akron, Utah, Texas, Purdue, Oregon State, Miami of Ohio, Louisiana Tech, Iowa State, Indiana, Florida A & M, Florida State and Georgia.

If we break this down by conference, the PAC-10 leads the way with 15. Followed by the SEC (13), Big-10 (12), the WAC and Conference USA each with 11. The Big 12 only has 6; one less than the Big East and MAC and 3 less than the acc.

The numbers for starters are even more scattered. Only one school, USC, has multiple current starters in the NFL. Those are Heisman trophy winners Matt Leinart and Carson Palmer. (Marshall had 2 until Byron Leftwich's demotion and release) 30 schools have one starter in the nfl. The SEC had the most starters with 6. Followed by the PAC-10 (4), ACC, Conference USA, and Big 10 (all with 3). The Big East has 2 - that's the same amount as the MAC, WAC, and SWAC.

There are two conclusions I would draw from this information.

1) USC produces the most NFL qb's. I don't know where John David Booty projects in the NFL draft, but if we assume he'll be an NFL starter in the next three years, USC would have 3 starters while no other team (outside of maybe Michigan with, potentially, Henne and Brady) having more than 1.

2) QB's probably choose schools where they'll have an opportunity to play. Jay Cutler was obviously good enough to play at Florida or Georgia....but he chose Vanderbilt. I don't know why he did that - it may have been for academic reasons - but I would guess that the opportunity to get extensive playing time (in what amounts to an NFL audition) factored into his decision.

Some other notes:

• The top 6 schools in the current (as of 9/2) AP poll have a starter (or, in one case, soon to be starter) in the NFL. USC (Leinart, Palmer), LSU (JaMarcus Russell - not yet a starter), West Virginia (Bulger), Texas (V Young) and Michigan (Brady)


• The only school in the current top 10 with zero qb's in the NFL is Oklahoma (No. 9 Virginia Tech has only the suspended Michael Vick). Louisville has only Chris Redman who is on the Falcons for now....but is not assured of a spot.


• Of the Top 25, 8 schools (Oklahoma, UCLA, Rutgers, Nebraska, Arkansas, TCU, Hawaii, Texas A & M) don't have a quarterback in the nfl.
• Notre Dame only has one QB in the NFL - Brady Quinn. Steve Buerlein was the last serviceable NFL QB from Notre Dame - playing 15 seasons for 6 teams and throwing for a league leading 4,436 yards and 36 TDs in 1999. Rick Mirer flames out as the number 2 pick in the draft and Ron Powlus never materialized into an NFL level college player.
• The last 15 Super Bowls have been won by QB's from Michigan (3 - Tom Brady), UCLA (3 Troy Aikman), Stanford (2 John Elway), Tennessee (2006 Peyton Manning), Miami-Ohio (2005 Ben Rothlesberger), Florida State (2002 Brad Johnson), Fresno State (2000 Trent Dilfer), Northern Iowa (1999 Kurt Warner), Southern Miss (1996 Brett Favre) and BYU (1994 Steve Young).
• No college has had multiple different QB's win the Super Bowl in the last 15 years
• Of the last 15 Heisman Trophy winners, 9 have been quarterbacks. Only Carson Palmer has gone on to NFL greatness. The jury is still out on Matt Leinart (a starter in AZ) and Troy Smith (who barely made the Ravens). Chris Weinke and Danny Wuerffel managed to stick areound the NFL for awhile - albeit with unspactular production and usually as back-ups. Jason White, Eric Crouch, Charlie Ward, and Gino Torretta had little or no NFL career. In fairness, Charlie Ward did not even try - becoming the point guard of the NY Knicks instead.
• If you look at Heisman winners all the way back to 1970, only Palmer has really become a star. Testaverde, Flutie, and Jim Plunkett had decent careers. Pat Sullivan, Andre Ware, and Ty Detmer made little impact in the NFL.

The following contains:

1. A sorted List of number of qb's by college


2. A sorted list of number of starters by college


3. A sorted list of number of qb's by conference


4. A sorted list of number of starters by conference


5. Every NFL qb and their college
   
   

Thanks to footballguys.com

1. A sorted List of number of qb's by college

School QB's

Washington 3
USC 3
Tulane 3
Oregon 3
Michigan 3
Miami 3
Marshall 3
Fresno State 3
Florida 3
Boston College 3
Wisconsin 2
Cal 2
Akron 2
Utah 2
Texas 2
Purdue 2
Oregon State 2
Miami of Ohio 2
Louisiana Tech 2
Iowa State 2
Indiana 2
Florida A & M 2
Florida State 2
Georgia 2
Wyoming 1
Georgetown 1
Grambling 1
Harvard 1
Houston 1
Idaho State 1
Boise State 1
BYU 1
Kentucky 1
Louisiana - Lafayette 1
Eastern Michigan 1
Louisville 1
LSU 1
Auburn 1
Arkansas State 1
Eastern Illinois 1
Arizona State 1
Michigan State 1
Middle Tennessee State 1
Mississippi 1
NC State 1
Nevada 1
Norther Iowa 1
Northern Illinois 1
Northwestern 1
Northwestern State - Louisiana 1
Notre Dame 1
Ohio State 1
Oklahoma 1
Alcorn State 1
East Carolina 1
Penn State 1
Pitt 1
Princeton 1
Connecticut 1
Sam Houston State 1
San Jose State 1
South Carolina 1
Southern Miss 1
Stanford 1
Syracuse 1
Tarleton State 1
Tennessee 1
Coastal Carolina 1
Toledo 1
Alabama State 1
Tulsa 1
UAB 1
Alabama 1
Clemson 1
UTEP 1
Vanderbilt 1
Virginia 1
Virginia Tech 1
Central Washington 1
Weber State 1
West Virginia 1
William and Mary 1
Central Florida 1

2. A sorted list of number of starters by college

School Starting QB's
USC 2
West Virginia 1
Alabama State 1
Alcorn State 1
Auburn 1
Boston College 1
Central Washington 1
East Carolina 1
Eastern Illinois 1
Florida 1
Indiana 1
Louisiana - Lafayette 1
LSU 1
Marshall 1
Miami of Ohio 1
Michigan 1
Mississippi 1
NC State 1
Oregon 1
Purdue 1
San Jose State 1
Southern Miss 1
Syracuse 1
Tennessee 1
Texas 1
Tulane 1
Akron 1
Utah 1
Vanderbilt 1
Virginia 1
Washington 1

3. A sorted list of number of qb's by conference
Conference Total QB's
Pac-10 15
SEC 13
Big-10 12
WAC 11
C-USA 11
acc 9
Big East 7
MAC 7
Big 12 6
SWAC 3
Sun Belt 3
MEAC 3
Ivy 2
Big Sky 2
Southland 2
Moutain West 2
Patriot 2
Great Northwest 1
A-10 1
Red River 1
Big South 1
Ohio Valley 1
Missouri Valley 1
Independent 1

4. A sorted list of number of starters by conference

Conference Starters

SEC 6
Pac-10 4
acc 3
C-USA 3
Big-10 3
WAC 2
SWAC 2
MAC 2
Big East 2
Great Northwest 1
Big 12 1
Ohio Valley 1
Sun Belt 1
Moutain West 1

5. Every NFL qb and their college
Tom Brady - Michigan
Matt Cassell - USC
Matt Gutierrez - Idaho State
Testaverde - Miami
JP Losman - Tulane
Craig Nall - Northwestern State - Louisiana
Trent Edwards - Stanford
Chad Pennington - Marshall
Kellen Clements - Oregon
Marques Tuiasasopo - Washington
Brett Ratliffe - Utah
Trent Green - Indiana
Cleo Lemon - Arkansas State
John Beck - BYU
Carson Palmer - USC
Doug Johnson - Florida
Jeff Rowe - Nevada
Jeff Smith - Georgetown
Ben Rothlesberger - Miami of Ohio
Charlie Batch - Eastern Michigan
Brian St. Pierre - Boston College
Charlie Frye - Akron
Derek Anderson - Oregon State
Brady Quinn - Notre Dame
Ken Dorsey - Miami
Steve McNair - Alcorn State
Kyle Boller - Cal
Troy Smith - Ohio State
Peyton Manning - Tennessee
Jim Sorgi - Wisconsin
Josh Betts - Miami of Ohio
Byron Leftwich - Marshall
David Gerrard - East Carolina
Quinn Gray - Florida A & M
Matt Schaub - Virginia
Sage Rosenfels - Iowa State
Jared Zabransky - Boise State
Kerry Collins - Penn State
Vince Young - Texas
Tim Rattay - Louisiana Tech
Brody Croyle - Alabama
Damon Huard - Washington
Jeff Terrell - Princeton
Casey Printers - Florida A & M
Jay Cutler - Vanderbilt
Patrick Ramsey - Tulane
Preston Parsons - Northern Illinois
Darrel Hackney - UAB
JaMarcus Russell - LSU
Andrew Walter - Arizona State
Josh McCown - Sam Houston State
Daunte Culpepper - Central Florida
Phillip Rivers - NC State
Billy Volek - Fresno State
Charlie Whitehurst - Clemson
Tony Romo - Eastern Illinois
Brad Johnson - Florida State
Richard Bartel - Tarleton State
Matt Moore - Oregon State
Jason Campbell - Auburn
Gibran Hamdan - Indiana
Mark Brunell - Washington
Jordan Palmer - UTEP
Todd Collins - Michigan
Eli Manning - Mississippi
Tim Hasselbeck - Boston College
Anthony Wright - South Carolina
Jared Lorenzen - Kentucky
Donovan McNabb - Syracuse
Kevin Kolb - Houston
AJ Feeley - Oregon
Jon Kitna - Central Washington
Dan Orlovsky - Connecticut
Drew Stanton - Michigan State
Rex Grossman - Florida
Brian Griese - Michigan
Kyle Orton - Purdue
Chris Leak - Florida
Tavaris Jackson - Alabama State
Brooks Bollinger - Wisconsin
Kelly Holcombe - Middle Tennessee State
tyler Thigpen - Coastal Carolina
Brett Favre - Southern Miss
Aaron Rogers - Cal
Paul Thompson - Oklahoma
Drew Brees - Purdue
Jaime Martin - Weber State
Tyler Palco - Pitt
Jake Delhomme - Louisiana - Lafayette
David Carr - Fresno State
Chris Weinke - Florida State
Brett Basanez - Northwestern
Michael Vick - Virginia Tech
Joey Harrington - Oregon
Chris Redman - Louisville
DJ Shockley - Georgia
Casey Bramlet - Wyoming
Chris Simms - Texas
Jeff Garcia - San Jose State
Luke McCown - Louisiana Tech
Marc Bulger - West Virginia
Bruce Gradkowski - Toledo
Bruce Eugene - Grambling
Gus Frerotte - Tulsa
Ryan Fitzgerald - Harvard
Brock Berlin - Miami
Alex Smith - Utah
Trent Dilfer - Fresno State
Luke Getsy - Akron
Shaun Hill - Tulane
Matt Leinart - USC
Kurt Warner - Norther Iowa
Lang Campbell - William and Mary
Matt Hasselback - Boston College
Seneca Wallace - Iowa State
David Greene - Georgia
David Devine - Marshall

Analysis of First Round NFL Picks (From 2007)

Interesting Notes About First Round Colleges: (Source=Wikipedia)

• Miami has the most 1st round picks since 2000 with an ungodly 25. After Miami is Ohio State and Florida State (each with 13), Texas (12), Wisconsin, Tennessee, Penn State, Oklahoma, USC and Georgia (all with 8).
• Texas has the most top 10 picks with 7. Miami has 5. Behind Miami is USC and FSU (each with 4), Penn State, Auburn, NC State and Ohio State (all with 3).
• Texas has the most top 5 picks with 5 (Vince Young, Cedric Benson, Leonard Davis, Mike Williams and Quentin Jammer). Penn State has 3 (Levi Brown, Courtney Brown, Lavar Arrington) - two of those were from the 2000 draft. Auburn (Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown - both RB's picked back to back in 2005), USC (Carson Pamer and Reggie Bush), NC State (Mario Williams and Philip Rivers) and Miami (Andre Johnson and Sean Taylor) each have 2.
• Texas can get players to the next level, but they don't necessarily succeed - especially the offensive linemen. Leonard Davis and Mike Williams have both been released by their original teams. Vince Young is a star in waiting. Quentin Jammer is a starter in SD, but many feel he is overrated. The jury is still out on Benson, but early results aren't promising.
• Two of the three Penn State players didn't really live up to their draft status. Courtney Brown was a dud and is currently without a team (to my knowledge). LaVarr Arrington managed a couple of good years, but nothing worthy of his draft status. Levi Brown is a rookie in 2007.
• USC's and Miami's top five picks appear to be stars
• NC State's top 5 picks are from the last three years.
• It's difficult to get a read on Auburn's players......both are looking iffy right now, even though their each a starting RB on their respective teams.
• The list of teams with multiple first rounders has very few teams outside of the top conference (excluding ND) in the country. No team outside of the major conferences has had more than 2 first round picks. Fresno State, Marshall, Utah, UAB, Tulane, and Jackson State each had 2 first round picks in this time period. Fresno State (David Carr) and Utah (Alex Smith) each had a player picked number 1 overall during this time period.
• Fresno State had the 1st pick of the 1st round in 2003 (Carr) and the last pick of the first round in 2005 (Mankins)
• Both of Tulane's first round picks were QB's taken in the second half of the first round. JP Losman was selected 22nd in 2004 and Patrick Ramsey was the last pick of the 1st round in 2002.
• Both of Marshall's first round picks since 2000 have been QB's. Chad Pennington was selected 18th in 2000 by the Jets. Byron Leftwich was selected 7th by the Jags in 2003.
• Both of Utah's 1st round picks came in the top 10. Jordan Gross was the Panther first pick in 2003 at number 8. The 49ers took Smith number 1 in 2005.
• Utah is the only school outside of the major conferences to have multiple top 10 picks. No school outside of the major conferences has had multiple top 5 picks.
• Only TCU (Ladanian Tomlinson), Utah and Fresno State have had any top 5 pick while being outside of the major conferences.
• Notre Dame has had two first round picks since 2000 - Brady Quinn (no. 22 in 2007) and Jeff Faine (No 21 in 2003). Both were selected by the Browns.
• The SEC has had the most first round picks since 2000 with 69. Followed by the Big 10 (48), ACC (45), PAC 10 (31) and Big 12 (30). Based on the conference to which each school belongs in 2007 (many of the ACC's picks would actually belong to the Big East)
• The Big East has only had 8 first round picks since 2000. However, many of the first round picks that are attributed to the ACC were for teams that were in the Big East at the time (Virginia Tech, Miami, and BC).
• The SEC has had the most top 10 picks with 23. Followed by the ACC (15), the Big 10 and Big 12 (12 each) and the PAC 10 with 9. The Mountain West had 4 - Smith and Gross from Utah, Urlacher from New Mexico and LT from TCU.
• The list for conferences with most top 5 picks is as follows: SEC (11), Big 10 (8), ACC and Big 12(7 each).
• The PAC 10 only has three - 2 Heisman Trophy winners from USC (Palmer and Bush) and Joey Harrington from Oregon.
• The Big East only has 3 top 10 picks (Pacman Jones from WVU, Amobi Okoye from Louisville, and Larry Fitgerald) and one top 5 (Fitzgerald). Again, many of the Miami, Va Tech and BC players were in the Big East at the time they were picked. But these numbers don't bode well for the current schools in the Big East.
• The WAC has only had one top 5 (or top 10) player, but it was the number 1 pick from the 2003 draft, David Carr.
• Miami has had 4 Tight Ends drafted in the first round since 2000. No other school has had more than 1.
• Miami was either 1st or 2nd in every position except quarterback and kicker. Sebastian Janikowski was the only kicker drafted in the first round during this time period.
• Defensive Linemen were, by far, the most frequest first rounders (60 players taken). The totals by position were: D-Line (60); DB (45); WR (37); O-Line (30); RB (24); LB (23); QB (21); TE (13); Kicker (1)
• The fact there were 21 QB's taken in the first round indicates that, basically, 2 out of every 3 teams have entered a draft since 2000 in search of a franchise qb.

How Good Is Randy Moss (from 2008)

I've always been a big fan of Randy Moss - going all the way back to watching the highlights of him sprinting through D1-AA defenses with those green and white striped Marshall socks. Then I started thinking about all of the facts about Randy Moss and how good he has been throughout his career - except for that brief stint in Oakland.
(Sidebar - doesn't it almost seem like the stint in Oakland should be able to be edited out of his resume? I mean, if you can find a way to put Animal House on TBS, there has to be a way to not allow that period onto his profile. It's almost like he was blackout drunk at a frat party......he just wasn't himself.)

Here are some facts to chew on:

• Moss has 124 TDs in 10 years. That's more than halfway to Jerry Rice's record of 197. Moss probably won't play 20 years (and to be fair, Rice had 131 after 10 years. But....we're talking about Jerry Rice here)
• Moss has 12,193 yards. Hall of Famer Michael Irvin had 11,904 in his 12 year career. Oh...and Irvin had 65 TDs......just over half of Moss's total.
• Most WRs blossom in their 3rd year and look completely lost as rookies. In his rookie season, Moss had 1,300 yards and 17 TDs. Rice had 900 yards and 3 TDs. Irvin 650/5; Harrison 800/8; Chad Johnson 300/1.
  
• The only rookie who came close in recent years was, believe it or not, Terry Glenn with 1100 yards and 6 TDs.
• In 1999, after getting absolutely torched by Moss in 1998 (his rookie year) the Green Bay Packers selected defensive backs in the 1st 3 rounds and another in the 7th. Think about that, they went into the 1999 draft with the specific intention of finding a way to stop Randy Moss - who was a rookie the year before!!!!!

Probably the most impressive piece of his resume is how much better he made each of his quarterbacks. In hindsight, Brady's incredible season seemed almost inevitable when you combined one of the best QBs of all time with Moss' obscene talents. Here's a comparison of each of Moss' QBs throughout his career and their average stats with him and without him.
(Sidebar - I omitted the Raider years. It's my blog and, if The Sopranos can be on A & E, than I can edit the stats for my blog.)


Let's go in chronological order starting with Randall Cunningham.
(Sidebar - by the way, can anyone have lucked into a better situation than Randall did in 1998. He was out of the league in 1996 and the MIN backup in 1997. Then in 1998 Brad Johnson gets hurt and Randall comes in and, 10 times per game, he closes his eyes and throws the ball about a mile in the air - to nobody in particular - and Moss would casually sprint to where the ball was going, jump higher than anyone else, and Cunningham gets an All Pro year out of it. At the age of 35 and 6 years removed from his prime. I hope he bought Moss a nice Xmas gift that year.)