Analysis of QB Records by Opponent Score - Part 1 (21 Point Threshold)

I've always been one to question the logic of using win/loss record as a major barometer of a quarterback's success. I never understood how fans could fault Dan Marino or Jim Kelly for not having a Super Bowl ring? Was it Marino's fault that he never got any support from the running game? Did Jim Kelly shank a makeable field goal on the last play of a Super Bowl? Of course not.

On the flip-side, were Tom Brady and Big Ben premier quarterbacks the year they won their first respective Super Bowls? I think most people would agree that, despite their current prominence, they had some help in the early victories.

With that in mind, I decided to see if I could find some statistics that started to tease out the question of how much a quarterback can ultimately control the outcome of a game.

Today's blog is the first.

During the recent Jay Cutler situation, I heard a number of critics reference his 14-20 record as a starter. However, Cutler's defenders quickly pointed out that he is 10-1 when his team gives up less than 21 points. I thought this was a very interesting way to look at the situation. Sports radio talking heads will ignore the fact that Cutler was supported by a lousy defense and focus on the record - simply because the record helps them reach their desired conclusion. (Never let the facts get in the way of a good story).

So, here's what I did. I looked at a handful of current quarterbacks and compared their records several different ways.

1. Overall record
2. Record when the defense gives up over 21 points
3. Record when the defense gives up under 21 points

So, let's get to the numbers:

Record When Opponent Scores Less vs. More Than 21 Points
Table 1 below shows the difference in winning percentage for a group of quarterbacks overall and when their defense gives up fewer than 21 points.




























Look at Carson Palmer and Drew Brees. Those two are clearly very good quarterbacks. But, for reasons they can't control, their records don't reflect their abilities. Palmer and Brees have 89% and 86% winning percentages, respectively, when their defense holds the opponent to under 21 points.

But, as Table 2 below shows, Brees' defense only comes through about 43% of the time (probably much less if you only look at his years with the Saints) and Palmer's team gives up less than 21 points 44% of the time. Compare this with Brady and Roethlisberger, who's opponents score less than 21 points in 2 out of every 3 games.

None of this is to imply that Brees or Palmer are as good as Brady. But, as Malcolm Gladwell's OUTLIERS points out, greatness does not happen in a vacuum. Tom Brady is one of the best QBs ever to play the game. But he would be the legend he is today if he didn't get help from the people around him.

A few other things jump out:

1. Overall, Matt Schaub has a losing record as a starting quarterback. But, he is also the QB on this list who has had the the least help from his defense. Schaub is actually undefeated in the 6 games where his defense holds the opponent to under 21 points.
2. Donovan McNabb and Jake Delhomme have been put in very good situations by stingy defenses. However, when faced with an opponent scoring over 21 points, Delhomme comes through at a much higher clip (44 win % - among the highest) than McNabb (38%).
3. Jason Campbell is very lucky his defense is an ally. Campbell has a win pct of 14% when his defense gives up over 21 points. Thank goodness this situation has happened in less than 40% of games Campbell has played.
4. Peyton Manning maintains a very high overall winning percentage (66%) despite his defense's mediocre efforts (<21>
5. Cutler and Palmer win 17% and 20%, respectively, of the games where their defense gives up over 21 points. These are actually two of the lower numbers for this metric.
   

Of course, to get a true measure of what this really means, we would have to see how far above 21 points the opponents are scoring. Cutler is winning less than one in five games where his defense gives up over 21 points. But, if the average number of points the opponent scores in those games is 35 points, then it may not make sense to compare this number to Brady or Roethlesberger. Stay tuned (how's that for a segway?)